The fact has only made the popular idea about September and its relationship with the tremors grow, which is nothing more than a peculiar coincidence, as science has argued on more than one occasion.
And we must remember that, although technology has advanced a lot to detect these movements with some anticipation, an earthquake cannot be predicted or forecast until now.
However, the coincidence of the date on which three of the earthquakes that have marked national history have occurred is striking, where the last two even have certain similarities in the time in which the events occurred.Well, now José Luis Mateos, a physicist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), has ventured to deliver a number on the possibilities that exist for this scenario to be replicated. In other words, he has given an answer to the question: how likely is it that a region will experience three high-intensity tremors on the same day, but in different years?
In an interview delivered to the newspaper El País, Mateos assures that it is a very, very low possibility. In reality we are talking about a probability of one in 133,225, which in percentage is read as 0.000751 percent.
Earthquakes on September 19, how likely?
To arrive at this figure, the physicist of the highest house of studies is based on different assumptions. The first, perhaps the most logical, is that every day of the year has the same probability of being the scene of an earthquake. The second has to do with the fact that they are independent events and the third is that, according to the aforementioned publication, only one earthquake greater than 7 points on the Richter scale is recorded per year.
Thus, the formula used to arrive at this number had to do with multiplying the probabilities -1 in 365 days by 1 in 365-, where the result is 1 in 133,225.
What are the chances that three earthquakes of more than 7 degrees will be registered in a country in three September 19? According to José Luis Mateos, @jlmateos, specialist in complex systems of the Institute of Physics of the UNAM, one for 133,225. Expressed another way, 0.000751%.
– Sergio Sarmiento (@SergioSarmiento) September 19, 2022
This calculation is not the first of its kind to be done. During the events that occurred on September 19, 2017, Mogens Bladt, a researcher at the UNAM Department of Probability and Statistics, said that the probability that an earthquake will cause the same material damage on the same day as at that time was 1 between 74.
At that time the formula q= 1-(1-p)^n was used, where “n” is the number of years elapsed (which was then valued at 32 years) and “p” was the probability.
«Since 32 years are 11,687 days and, until September 19, 2017, in that period only five earthquakes had left at least material damage in the Mexican capital, then the probability was 1-(1-5/11,687)^32 =0.0136=1.36 percent”, they explained from El País.