For the first time in its history, the Earth will cross a critical threshold in 2024, shattering the cardinal objective set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to preserve our planet. The observation of the European Copernicus Service (C3S) is clear: 2024 will mark a dramatic turning point in the history of the climate. Our planet will exceed the threshold of +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial eraa limit that international agreements were trying to avoid at all costs. The point of no return has never been closer.
When the thermometer panics, science is alarmed
The temperature readings draw a dizzying curve. October 2023 had already sounded a warning with a rise of 1.65°C, foreshadowing what awaited us. The explanation lies in our CO emissions2which reached a record level of 420 parts per million (ppm) – ssees an increase of 50% since the beginning of industrialization.
This buildup of greenhouse gases acts like an ever-thickening blanket around our planet, trapping heat and disrupting age-old climatic mechanisms. For Samantha Burgess, from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), this new level should electrify the debates at the next COP29, while current measures are clearly insufficient given the scale of the challenge. “ This new global temperature record highlights the urgency of increasing global efforts to combat climate change as COP29 approaches » explain-she.
The Trump effect: a brake on climate ambitions
The election of Donald Trump to the American presidency, while it delights the tech sector, risks profoundly shaking up the environmental situation on a global scale. The new tenant of the White House displays a program diametrically opposed to efforts to combat global warming : planned exit from the Paris Agreement, dismantling of environmental regulations, and above all, massive relaunch of the exploitation of fossil fuels.
This about-face directly threatens the legacy of the Biden-Harris administration, which nevertheless initiated the most ambitious climate policies in American history via the Inflation Reduction Act. The financing of renewable energies and measures to reduce emissions, pillars of this historic law, are now in the spotlight. A turnaround that is all the more worrying given that the United States, the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, play a sadly central role in climate change.
Cascading consequences on our daily lives
The impacts of this accelerated warming are already manifesting themselves tangibly in our lives. Heat waves are intensifying and multiplying, endangering the most vulnerable populations. Extreme weather events are unleashed: violent fires, devastating floods, prolonged droughts, storms and hurricanes leaving chaos in their wake. These phenomena will ultimately lead to immense climatic migrations of vulnerable people, which will catalyze social and political tensions in the countries that host them.
Many animal and plant species fail to adapt to the dazzling nature of these changes and are now threatened with extinction. Forests, corals, wetlands and other ecosystems are also weakened, leading to a loss of essential ecosystem services (climate regulation, water purification, etc.).
Agriculture is bearing the brunt of these upheavals : yields are decreasing, harvests are becoming more and more uncertain and irregular, leading to a surge in food prices, consequently weakening global food security. Climatologists are clear: each additional fraction of a degree amplifies these disturbances. The objective of net zero emissions therefore becomes more urgent than ever – every tonne of CO2 avoided counts to limit the scale of these upheavals.
This historic excess of 1.5°C in 2024 could be only the prelude to a new climatic regime. Even if this crossing remains punctual for the moment, it foreshadows what could become our new normal in the years to come, in an unfavorable international political context. to the radical actions that the climate emergency nevertheless requires.
- In 2024, the Earth will exceed the critical threshold of +1.5°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial era, a threshold that the Paris Agreement aimed to avoid.
- The election of Trump and his pro-fossil fuel policies risk hampering climate efforts, making the fight against climate change even more difficult.
- This accelerated warming, amplified by record CO2 emissions, is already causing heat waves, natural disasters and seriously threatening global food security.
