The foldable smartphone market is going through an unexpectedly difficult period, as revealed by a new report from analysis firm DSCC. For the first time in its history, this segment recorded a significant decline in screen orders, with a drop of 38% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous year. A trend which marks a sudden halt after several years of sustained growth of at least 40% between 2019 and 2023.
A generalized slowdown in the market
Difficulties even affect market leaders. Samsung, pioneer and major player in the segment, sees sales of its Galaxy Z Flip 6 decline by more than 10% compared to its predecessor. The Korean manufacturer, which held 52% of the market, saw its share drop to 40%. The situation is particularly worrying in the United States and China, where adoption remains limited despite a strong presence in Korea and Europe.
Huawei, the second largest player in the market, is also struggling with its market share collapsing from 30% to 13% in the third quarter of 2024. US restrictions on the import of advanced processors and semiconductor equipment into China have considerably affected its ability to innovate in the high-end segment. The Samsung-Huawei duopoly, which represented 70% of the market, is showing signs of weakness while no other manufacturer has managed to establish itself as a credible alternative.
Apple’s hope for 2026
In this gloomy context, the announced arrival of Apple on the foldable smartphone market in the second half of 2026 appears to be a glimmer of hope. DSCC analysts believe that Apple’s dominant position in the premium segment could revitalize the entire market. Their forecasts expect record growth of more than 30% in 2026, followed by an increase of at least 20% in 2027 and 2028.
Early information regarding the foldable iPhone suggests that Apple would opt for a “clamshell” format comparable to the Galaxy Z Flip, with a 7.9 to 8.3-inch screen that folds vertically. This approach would make it possible to retain the advantages of a traditional iPhone while offering the advantages of a compact format when folded. Apple’s reputation for innovation and craftsmanship could also solve some current market bottlenecks, particularly in terms of durability and user experience. In this direction The ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air which is emerging could be a step in this direction; Cupertino is testing a new design to better integrate the folding screen in a few years.
Apple’s ability to revitalize this segment will, however, depend on its ability to offer convincing use cases and justify a premium price in a market already positioned at the high end. History has shown that the Cupertino company has often been able to transform emerging markets into mainstream successes, as it has done with smartphones, tablets or more recently connected watches. The challenge now is to repeat this performance in the foldable smartphone segment, a challenge that could redraw the contours of the mobile industry for years to come.
