Apple could be about to face one of the greatest threats against its economic interests and its benefits, but if something has demonstrated the company based in Cupertino is that it has the capacity to act and seek adequate solutions quickly in times of crisis, and this time, with Donald Trump as the protagonist, it will not be different.
The trigger this time has not been a drop in sales, a problem with the privacy of its users or a product filtration, but a political decision with direct consequences: the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has announced new massive tariffs to imports from several countries, including China, India and Vietnam. And yes, that It fully affects the iPhone, the iPad and almost everything Apple manufactures.
The war between Trump and Apple begins
As of April 9, all Apple products imported from China, India or Vietnam will have to face to duty 54%, 26% and 46% respectively. The news has not taken to shake the markets: Apple's shares have fallen more than 9% in a matter of hours. And it's not for less. The increase in costs is so drastic that, if Apple does not take measures, it could lose between 8.5% and 9% of its gross profit margin, which in 2024 reached a healthy 46%. That, for a company that depends largely on its ability to make cheap and sell with margin, is a direct blow.
However, the renowned Ming-Chi Kuo analyst has quickly went out to calm the waters and, incidentally, to reveal the road map that Apple could follow to cushion the impact without the price of the iPhone shooting. The first key is in Indiasince Apple has been diversifying its supply chain for years not to depend so much on China, and this could be the perfect time to accelerate production in Indian territory. If India achieves trade agreements with the United States that allow tariff exemptions and Apple increases its production capacity there above 30% global, the margin drop would be reduced to only 1% or 3%.
Will the iPhone cost more?
Another measure that Apple could apply, although more subtle, is to raise the prices of the most expensive models. According to Kuo, between 65% and 70% of iPhone buyers opt for Pro Max models, and these consumers would be more willing to assume a moderate price increase if properly justified.
But there is even more. Apple could increase the subsidies offered by the operators in the purchase of iPhone, a formula that would lower the initial cost of the end user device. It is also contemplated to reduce the value of renewal or trace-in programs, which would imply that the user receives less money for delivering their old iPhone. And finally, the company could even more squeeze nuts to its suppliers so that Reduce costs of production.
What is clear is that Apple is not willing to lose its economic giant position without fighting. Although Trump's measures are an unprecedented challenge, they also represent a fire test to see to what extent the company has managed to diversify its supply chain and prepare for more complex scenarios. Kuo, meanwhile, is optimistic: although the gross margin can fall momentarily below 40%, he believes that it would be a passing effect.
