Government decisions in several countries could derail the growth of the smartphone market in the coming months. The impact of tariff policies in the United States and the push for domestic brands in China represent significant challenges for companies like Apple and Samsung, which have historically dominated the sector. In Apple’s case, the impact could be felt soon, with the upcoming launch of the iPhone 17.
In light of this trend, industry analyst firms such as Counterpoint Research have revised their expectations, which initially predicted global growth of 4.2% in smartphone shipments for this year, drastically reducing that figure to a modest 1.9%.
Apple would be forced to increase the price of the iPhone 17
Counterpoint Research predicts a year-over-year decline in US sales of iPhones and Samsung smartphones. This decline is directly attributed to “expected tariff-induced price increases,” suggesting that some of the tariff burden will be passed on to consumers, impacting their purchasing power and, consequently, demand.
Due to the bleak outlook, the iPhone 17 is expected to be priced higher than current models, a move aimed at offsetting the additional costs resulting from these trade policies.
In China, a government subsidy program was expected to boost growth, but the market reaction has fallen short of expectations, leading to a downward revision of regional growth to a virtually flat year-on-year level. This, combined with trade frictions, creates a less favorable environment for expansion.
The report states:
“The rising rhetoric and uncertainty surrounding trade policy could significantly impact OEM pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and ultimately, consumer demand.”
And things could be worse. The possibility of tariff policies deteriorating further in the future could lead to further downward revisions, increasing pressure on manufacturers.
There is no official decision, but Apple needs a plan
So far, there is no approved policy that affects the price of the iPhone in the United States, but the constant statements from authorities and the possibility of this happening are not ignored by the market.
While uncertainty persists regarding the future of these trade policies, what is undeniable is that consumers, through potential price increases, will be a key factor in the evolution of iPhone and other device sales. Apple’s ability to navigate these challenges and maintain the appeal of its products in a high-price environment will be crucial to its performance in the coming years.
