Elon Musk is an iconic figure in the technological world and he recently made a bold statement regarding the global energy future via a publication on X (formerly Twitter). According to him, humanity could one day get all its energy from solar panels – once she has fully understood and mastered theKardashev scale.
A concept dating from 1964
The Kardashev Scale was designed by Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev and ranks civilizations according to their ability to harness available energy, ranging from planetary to galactic scales. Musk bases his optimism on simple but impressive calculations: he claims that an area of just 2.5 square kilometers of solar panels could generate 3 gigawatt hours of energy.
Extrapolated to a large scale, this calculation suggests that a massive deployment of solar panels could theoretically cover the energy needs of an entire country, or even the world. Last year, he also said during a conference: “If you want to power the entire United States with solar panels, that would require a little bit of Nevada or Texas, Utah, wherever. All you need is about 100 miles by 100 miles of solar panels, to power the entire United States.”.
Once you understand Kardashev Scale, it becomes absolutely obvious that essentially all energy generation will be solar.
Also, just do the math on solar on Earth and you soon figure out that a relatively small corner of Texas or New Mexico can easily serve all US electricity.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 26, 2024
Practical challenges
However, this ambitious vision faces several practical challenges: the intermittency of solar energy due to weather variations and the day-night cycle remains a major obstacle. To overcome this problem, large-scale energy storage solutions are needed. Current battery technologies are not yet advanced enough to meet this massive demand.
Moreover, integrating large-scale solar energy into existing power grids poses technical and financial challenges considerable. Another factor to consider is the cost-effectiveness of storing excess energy, particularly when solar electricity prices are low or negative.
Musk highlights the importance of a systemic approach to the energy transition. It is not just about deploying solar panels but also about developing efficient storage technologies, creating more flexible and resilient electricity networks and putting in place appropriate regulations and incentives. On this subject, Musk has attempted several times in the last decade to develop tools to control solar energy (SolarCity, Solar Roof) without ever succeeding.
While Musk’s vision is ambitious (and likely out of reach right now), it highlights the potential of solar energy and the need for technological and societal evolution to achieve this objective.
